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T3 Voter Key Expected Value

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by p0six, May 24, 2018.

  1. p0six

    p0six Well-Known Member MVP+

    I will be doing an expected value series on voter keys to see how voter keys compare in utility, and to make the point that I believe t3 / t2 keys should be buffed to adjust for their severe shittiness in comparison to t1 keys

    T3 Expected Returns

    3.375 mcmmo cred
    .005 voter tag oj
    .01 1.2x all drug
    .01 blaze spawner
    .02 prot 4 armor
    .02 skele spawner
    .02 zombie spawner
    .105 cegg
    8.25 vote points
    $5875
    .04 super gapple
    .04 tag crate key
    .04 t3 sword
    .04 t3 shovel
    .05 t3 pick
    .05 t3 axe
    .05 cegg
    .05 t3 bow
    .06 randrug 1.4
    7.68 tnt
    7.68 obsidian

    For t3 keys, boosters are a possible drop, and so I base the expected value of a booster off of how many drugs I believe are sold during that booster. Some may say, "wait, but I only care about how much I make off of boosters, p0six. Fool." In response, I would argue that all players can use boosters, and therefore, we should treat the boosters as though they affect a hivemind of players. If I'm using one t3 booster / month from voter keys, and so is everyone else on the server, then my value for a booster is added to the value of boosters I get from everyone else's boosters. So, we take into account all players' gain from the boosters, rather than the person who uses the booster, when determining expected booster value.

    In order to calculate the value of this crate key, I am taking into account my personal value for these items. I valued them based upon their market prices as well as what I would personally pay for them. Obviously, this could be managed more effectively by polling players, but I'm not doing that. I multiply the value I see in an item * its percent chance to drop to get its expected value.
    $$$ Value:

    3.375 mcmmo cred = $3375
    8.25 vote points = $7000
    $5875 = $5875
    .005 voter tag = $50
    .01 1.2x = $11612.16 *I assume that 30 inventories of bread worth of money are sold per booster. This is true, more or less*
    .01 blaze spawner = $300
    .02 prot 4 armor = $400
    .02 skele spawner = $400
    .02 zombie spawner = $400
    .05 cegg = $200
    .05 t3 bow = $1000
    .06 randrug 1.4 = $12000 *I assume that 500k of drugs is sold per random drug booster, due to the amount of useless drugs possible (I estimate that around 7.5 drugs are valuable, after having adjusted for drug prevalence. Again, this is obviously only my personal value, and so these results are probably much different than actual boosters), as well as the higher drug traffic on useful boosters due to more people caring about 1.4 boosters than 1.2 boosters, and the fact that a 1.4 brings in more money per drug sold.
    7.68 tnt = $384
    7.68 obsidian = $384

    Totals: $43380 / t3 voter key
    Last edited: May 25, 2018
    • + High + High x 2
  2. _Debug

    _Debug Member

    Can you post the rest of the numbers? It seems like you haven’t taken into consideration inflation.
  3. p0six

    p0six Well-Known Member MVP+

    I don’t think inflation ever affects the mcd economy, but I’ll be doing other keys later
    • - High - High x 2
  4. IanPFink

    IanPFink Active Member MVP+

    IanPFink
    Rasta
    i approve of this post good job
    • Funny Funny x 1
  5. Spalw

    Spalw Owner Staff Member Owner

    spalw
    HeadStaff
    This is totally incorrect.

    Inflation the main cause of price fluctuation of commodities such as points or voter keys throughout the map.
    • Informative Informative x 4
    • + High + High x 1
  6. p0six

    p0six Well-Known Member MVP+

    I guess. I don't really know how to track inflation of those things though. I didn't think about that.
  7. Marquise

    Marquise Helper Helper 2017 Map Founder MVP+

    MarKeeys
    Junky
    Is there anything you can show to support your first claim of statistics? Or are they the real numbers of chance in the crates?
  8. NovaSeepa

    NovaSeepa Mod Staff Member Moderator MVP++

    The chances to get each item are publicly available for the Voter Crates. In-game if you left click the crate the percentage for each item can be seen when you hover over them.
    • Informative Informative x 3
  9. _Debug

    _Debug Member

    Inflation affects every economy. Period. Administrators can control the prices to an extent, but the community will ultimately determine an item’s price. It’s just common sense. For items that aren’t directly bought from the server, commodities such as keys, boosts, and tools/weapons’ prices are subject to supply and demand. Drugs are supposed to follow economic trends(I’m not the most-informed about how drug prices change), but don’t the owners manually change prices? If t3 keys flooded the market, you would subsequently see a drop in their value, as well as the items you get from them. I hate to say it, but I think these few posts of yours are futile
    • - High - High x 1

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